We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive $\lambda >0$. The containment measures are modeled by considering a time-dependent modulation of the bare infectivity $\lambda$ leading to effective infectivity that decays in time for each infected individual, mimicking, for instance, the combined effect of the asymptomatic onset of the disease, testing policies, and quarantine. We consider a wide range of temporal kernels for effective infectivity, and we investigate the effect of the considered containment measures. We find that not all kernels are able to push the epidemic dynamics below the epidemic threshold with some containment measures only able to reduce the rate of the exponential growth of newly infected individuals. We also propose a pandemic model caused by a growing number of separated foci.

• Received 8 April 2020
• Accepted 4 September 2020

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.032305