Diabetes Prevalence in Sweden at Present and Projections for Year 2050

Tomas Andersson; Anders Ahlbom; Sofia Carlsson

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0143084

Abstract

Background

Data on the future diabetes burden in Scandinavia is limited. Our aim was to project the future burden of diabetes in Sweden by modelling data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and demographic factors.

Method

To project the future burden of diabetes we used information on the prevalence of diabetes from the national drug prescription registry (adults ≥20 years), previously published data on relative mortality in people with diabetes, and population demographics and projections from Statistics Sweden. Alternative scenarios were created based on different assumptions regarding the future incidence of diabetes.

Results

Between 2007 and 2013 the prevalence of diabetes rose from 5.8 to 6.8% in Sweden but incidence remained constant at 4.4 per 1000 (2013). With constant incidence and continued improvement in relative survival, prevalence will increase to 10.4% by year 2050 and the number of afflicted individuals will increase to 940 000. Of this rise, 30% is accounted for by changes in the age structure of the population and 14% by improved relative survival in people with diabetes. A hypothesized 1% annual rise in incidence will result in a prevalence of 12.6% and 1 136 000 cases. Even with decreasing incidence at 1% per year, prevalence of diabetes will continue to increase.

Conclusion

We can expect diabetes prevalence to rise substantially in Sweden over the next 35 years as a result of demographic changes and improved survival among people with diabetes. A dramatic reduction in incidence is required to prevent this development.

Citation: Andersson T, Ahlbom A, Carlsson S (2015) Diabetes Prevalence in Sweden at Present and Projections for Year 2050. PLoS ONE 10(11): e0143084. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143084

Editor: Andrea Icks, Heinrich-Heine University, Faculty of Medicine, GERMANY

Received: March 11, 2015; Accepted: November 2, 2015; Published: November 30, 2015

Copyright: © 2015 Andersson et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Data Availability: The analysis are based on publicly available data from the Swedish prescription registry: http://www.socialstyrelsen.se/statistik/statistikdatabas/lakemedel.

Funding: The authors have no support or funding to report.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction

Diabetes is increasing world wide and this development is expected to continue: In Europe, diabetes prevalence has been projected to rise from 8.5% (2013) to 10.3% (2035) in adults 20–79 years, as a consequence of the aging population [1]. However, if incidence of diabetes is rising as well, this forecast is an underestimation. Changes in survival in patients with diabetes will also affect the future burden of diabetes and according to data from the US [2], UK [3], Denmark [4] and Sweden [5–6] mortality is decreasing faster in people with diabetes than in the general population. The influence of changes in incidence and survival may be substantial. In the US, Boyle et al modeled the prevalence of diabetes to be 21% by 2050 in the light of stable incidence and high mortality, whereas a rise in incidence and relatively low mortality will result in prevalence of 33% [7]. As far as we know, only one previous study [8]accounted for trends in incidence and survival while forecasting the future burden of diabetes in Europe.

Prevalence of diabetes is reportedly lower in Scandinavian Countries than in other parts of Europe [1] and the US [9], but recent studies suggest that it has been rising since the 1990:ies. Data on the future burden of diabetes in Scandinavia is limited to the projections from the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) [1], where no information on trends in mortality or incidence is included. Against this background our aim was to project the future burden of diabetes in Sweden by modelling data on prevalence, incidence, and survival in patients with diabetes together with population projections, taking into account changes in survival and demographic structure of the general population.

Material and Methods

Diabetes

The national drug prescription registry records all dispensed prescription drugs for the entire Swedish population since 1 July 2005 [10–11]. This registry can hence be expected to cover all individuals with pharmacologically treated diabetes in Sweden [12]. The drugs are classified according to the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification system [13] and those belonging to ATC group 10 (insulin and oral antidiabetic drugs) where used in this study. No distinction was made between different forms of diabetes. This was used to calculate the prevalence of pharmacologically treated diabetes during the period 2007–2013. To account for non-pharmacologically treated diabetes, which accounted for 22.6% of all diabetes in adults in Sweden in 2013, according to recently published data from the national diabetes registry (NDR) [14], we amplified the prescription registry-based diabetes count by a factor of 1.292.

Mortality

Age-specific death risks of the general population 2007–2013, was based on official population statistics produced by Statistics Sweden. Information on the age- specific, relative excess mortality in people with diabetes (irrespective of diabetes type) came from previously published findings from the Stockholm County for the period 1994–2011. This study included 63 616 randomly selected individuals of the adult (≥18 years) population of Stockholm County (~2.1 million inhabitants representing 1/5 of the Swedish population) who participated in a survey in 1994, 2002, 2006, or 2010. Through linkage to the national death registry we observed 2389 deaths over the period 1994–2011, and estimated that the relative excess mortality in people with diabetes declined annually by 1.6% [6].

Population forecast

Statistics Sweden provides annual forecasts of the population of Sweden based on assumptions regarding age and sex specific death rates, fertility rates, and migration. We used data from its latest projection for the period 2014–2050 [15]

Ethics Statement

The study was based on publicly available data and previously published data and no individual data was used, hence, no ethical approval or consent was warranted.

Statistical methods

Because diabetes is a chronic disease there is in a closed cohort a straightforward relation between incidence, prevalence, and survival: The prevalence at the end of one year is the prevalence one year earlier minus the deaths during that year plus the incident cases during the same year. Thus, the prevalence at the end of a year for a specific birth cohort and gender was calculated as the sum of two parts: First the prevalence one year earlier was multiplied with the chance of survival for an individual with diabetes. Second the incident cases were calculated by multiplying the cumulative incidence of diabetes with the prevalence of non diabetes at the end of the previous year. The prevalence of non-diabetes was taken as the total population at that time minus the surviving individuals with diabetes from one year earlier. That is: (1) where:

p_y = prevalence of diabetes at the end of year y for a specific birth cohort and gender

m_y = death risk during year y for a specific birth cohort and gender in the total population

m_1,y = death risk during year y for a specific birth cohort and gender among all individuals with diabetes

i_y = cumulative incidence (risk) of diabetes during year y for a specific birth cohort and gender

During the base line period of 2007–2013, the prevalence of pharmaceutically treated diabetes was known from the prescription registry (amplified to account for non-pharmacologically treated diabetes) and mortality for the general population was known from statistics Sweden. The excess mortality among individuals with diabetes was known from our previous study [6]. Thus, Eq 1 can be solved for the cumulative incidence: (2)

Eq 2 was applied separately for birth cohorts and genders for each of the years in the base line period 2007–2013, thus providing the cumulative incidences. For the forecasting period from 2014–2050,formula (1) was used to calculate the prevalence in a yearly step by step fashion. Population figures and death risks were then taken from statistics Sweden's forecasts while different scenarios were applied regarding the future incidence of diabetes and also regarding the future excess mortality among people with diabetes.

Since the primary data for prevalence and incidence calculations were counts taken from public registries they were not designed primarily for use in epidemiologic research and the measures that we were using had to be adopted accordingly. Thus, prevalence in our calculations was the number of persons with dispensed prescriptions during the year divided by the number of people at the start of that year and death risks among all individuals with diabetes were calculated as the expected proportion of deceased among people that had collected diabetes medication at least once.

The estimates of prevalence and incidence does only rely on proportions and thus would be unaffected by changes in population size. This makes it possible to apply our method to the actual Swedish population although it is not a closed cohort.

Projections

We projected the future prevalence during the period 2014–2050, in relative and absolute numbers. Four scenarios (displayed in Table 1) were modelled with different assumptions regarding the future incidence and mortality; In Scenario A we assume that the relative risk of death for those with diabetes continues to decrease by 1.6% per year and assume that age specific incidence is constant at the levels observed in 2013 (summarized in S1 Table). In scenario B) the relative risk of death associated with diabetes decreases as in scenario A and incidence of diabetes increases by 1% annually, with the estimated age-specific incidence in 2013 as starting points. In scenario C) mortality decreases as in scenario A and B but age-specific incidence decreases at 1% annually. Scenario D implies that mortality in people with diabetes improves at the same rate as in people without diabetes and incidence is constant. Based on these scenarios we estimated prevalence and number of people with diabetes 2014–2050.

Download:

Table 1. Projected prevalence and number of cases of diabetes 2014–2050.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143084.t001

Results

Prevalence and Incidence of diabetes 2007–2013 based on the prescription registry

Prevalence increased from 5.8 to 6.8% in Sweden between 2007 and 2013; from 6.6 to 7.9% in men and from 5.1 to 5.8% in women (Table 2). The rise occurred across all age categories but was most pronounced in people aged 65 or older (S1 Fig). As expected, prevalence increased with age; in 2013, 12.8% of women and 18.8% of men ≥65 years had diabetes. Incidence remained relatively stable during the period 2007–2013 and was estimated at 4.4 (95% CI; 4.1–4.9) per 1000 in 2013 (5.5, 95% CI; 5.2–6.1 in men and 3.3, 95% CI; 3.0–3.8 in women) (S1 Table).

Download:

Table 2. Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden 2007 to 2013 by age and sex.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143084.t002

Projected prevalence and number of people with diabetes 2014–2050

Scenario A: With a continued relative decline in mortality risk in people with diabetes and constant incidence, the prevalence of diabetes is projected to increase in Sweden and reach 10.4% by year 2050 (Fig 1); 8.6% in women and 12.2% in men (Fig 2). The number of people with diabetes will also increase and by year 2050, 940 000 inhabitants will have diabetes (Fig 3). Most of the rise in prevalence will occur at age 65 and above (S1 Fig). According to our projection, there will be a shift in the age distribution of the diabetes patients; in 2013, 59% of all individuals with diabetes were 65 years or older compared to 69% in 2050. Scenario B: If mortality risk continues to decline faster in people with diabetes than in those without as in Scenario A, but incidence starts to rise at 1% per year, we can expect diabetes prevalence of 12.6% in 2050 (10.4% in women and 14.8% in men) (Fig 1). With this scenario 1 136 000 inhabitants will have diabetes in 2050 (Fig 3). Scenario C: In the third scenario, mortality in people with diabetes decline as in Scenario A and B but incidence decreases at 1% per year. This would lead to prevalence of 8.7% by year 2050 and 783 000 individuals with diabetes. Scenario D: If mortality risk in people with diabetes stabilizes and incidence is constant, prevalence would reach 9.7% and the number of afflicted individuals would be 880 000 by year 2050.

Download:

Fig 1. Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden 2007–2013 and projections for 2014–2050.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143084.g001

Download:

Fig 2. Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden 2007–2013 and projections for 2014–2050, by sex.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143084.g002

Download:

Fig 3. Number of patients with diabetes in Sweden 2007–2013 and projections for 2014–2050.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143084.g003

Relative importance of factors affecting the future number of patients

In scenario A with stable incidence and decreasing relative mortality, the number of cases of diabetes will increase by 182% between 2013 and 2050. Of this increase, 36% is accounted for by changes in population size and 30% by an upward shift in in the age distribution of the population, and 14% to improved relative survival in people with diabetes. Besides this, falling mortality rates in the general population also contribute to increasing number of people with diabetes. The influence of these factors is not mutually exclusive since falling mortality rates influence age structure as well as population size.

Discussion

Our findings indicate that if the current trends continue, prevalence of diabetes will rise in Sweden from 6.8% (2013) to 10.4% by year 2050, with 940 000 affected inhabitants. The primary driving forces behind this development are changes in age structure and population size, together with mortality that decrease faster in people with diabetes than in those without.

The observed prevalence of diabetes 2007–2013 was higher than in previous Swedish reports [6, 16–18], but this is on the other hand the first time that Swedish diabetes prevalence has been presented based on registry data, with complete coverage for the whole population. These results challenge the view that diabetes is less frequent in Sweden than in other parts of Europe [1]. Our projections also indicate that in the future, we can expect a similar rise in diabetes prevalence as forecasted in the UK; where Holman et al. [19] projected that diabetes prevalence would rise to 9.5% in 2030, and Germany; where a prevalence of 9.4% by year 2040 was projected [20]. In contrast, the IDF forecast suggests that diabetes prevalence will be stable in Sweden until 2035 [1]. Notably, their projection is standardized for age which masks a rise due to changes in the age structure, and furthermore, no assumptions were made regarding in changes in incidence or mortality.

Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden rose between 2007 and 2013, but incidence remained relatively constant. This fits with our previous observations from the Stockholm County where incidence of diabetes rose by 3% annually between 1990 and 2002, but leveled off from 2002 onwards. A similar development has also been reported in Denmark [4]. If incidence of diabetes would start to rise even at a modest level, the influence on the future burden of diabetes would be substantial; a 1% annual increase in incidence would generate a prevalence of 12.6% by year 2050 and the number of patients would be 21% higher than in a scenario with constant incidence. This scenario is not unlikely given that prevalence of overweight and obesity has been increasing steadily in Sweden over the last decades [6, 16]. Most importantly, even with a substantial decline in incidence, prevalence of diabetes will continue to increase in Sweden as a result of changes in age structure and survival.

A rise in the number of diabetes patients will have a major impact on public health since diabetes is afflicted with a range of co-morbidities including an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and premature death [21–22]. It will also have consequences for public spending and planning of health care services. Data on the economic consequences of diabetes in Sweden is scarce. However, according to the study by Waldeyer et al. a rise in prevalence from 5.7 to 9.4% in Germany will increase the annual medical costs for diabetes by 85% [20]. According to our calculations a 2.3% annual reduction in incidence is required to counterbalance the rise in prevalence that is expected to occur due to improved survival and the upward shift in the age distribution of the population. Obesity is by far the most important modifiable risk factor for type 2 diabetes, increasing the risk 7-fold [23]. In order to accomplish a substantial reduction in diabetes incidence there is a need for effective prevention and a significant reduction in levels of overweight and obesity.

Limitations

Strengths of these projections include the use of registry data for assessment of diabetes prevalence, differential mortality in people with and without diabetes together with official population projections. The Swedish drug prescription registry covers all dispensed prescriptions from Swedish pharmacies [10] and can thus be expected to include all pharmacologically treated patients with diabetes. Patients only treated by diet are missed and to account for this we used information from the Swedish Diabetes Registry on treatment regiments in Swedish patients [15]. In 2013, 23% of Swedish diabetes patients were treated by diet only. It is possible that the proportion of patients with different kinds of treatment will change in the future, but this will not bias our projections since the sum of patients would remain the same. No distinction could be made between different forms of diabetes. Notably, Sweden has the second highest incidence of type 1 diabetes, but type 2 diabetes still accounts for 85–90% of all diabetes in adults [15] and hence, the results primarily pertain to this diabetes form. Undiagnosed diabetes was not included. The IDF includes undiagnosed diabetes at a proportion of 36.6% in their projections [1]. Adding this number to our estimations (scenario A) indicates that 12.3% of the Swedish population will have diabetes by year 2050. In our projections we assumed that the relative mortality in people with diabetes will continue to improve faster in people with diabetes than in the general population, and the rate of improvement was based on observations from Stockholm County for the period 1994–2011 [6]. A similar trend has also been reported from other parts of Europe [3–4] and the US [2]. However, if the rate of improvement is higher in Stockholm compared to the country as a whole we would overestimate the future burden of diabetes. Notably, if survival in people with diabetes would stabilize and follow the same pattern as in the general population diabetes prevalence would increase until year 2030 and then level off. Most previous attempts to project diabetes did not take into account changes in relative mortality [1, 18–19], and this will most likely lead to an underestimation of the future prevalence. One consideration is whether the relative diabetes mortality observed in Stockholm County is generalizable to the population of Sweden as a whole. Still, as long as the difference in mortality between people with and without diabetes is similar in Stockholm as in the rest of Sweden, this generalization should hold. Finally, immigration of people with higher (or lower) diabetes risk may influence the future incidence of diabetes in ways that are difficult to foresee at present.

Conclusion

Public health is improving in many areas and life expectancy is increasing in the general population and even more so among people with diabetes. Paradoxically, this positive development will have a negative effect on the future burden of diabetes in Sweden; the prevalence and number of cases will increase substantially over the next 35 years, even if the risk of developing diabetes per se would remain constant or even decrease. To reduce the future prevalence of diabetes, a substantial reduction in incidence is required. The health care system needs to be prepared to meet the needs of this growing number of patients with diabetes.

Supporting Information

S1 Fig. Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden 2007–2013 and projections for 2014–2050 by age (Scenario A).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143084.s001

(TIF)

S1 Table. Approximated incidence of diabetes (per 1000) in Sweden 2007 to 2013 by age and sex.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0143084.s002

(DOCX)

Author Contributions

Analyzed the data: TA. Wrote the paper: TA AA SC.

References

1. Guariguata L, Whiting DR, Hambleton I, Beagley J, Linnenkamp U, Shaw JE. Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2013 and projections for 2035. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2014;103:137–49. pmid:24630390
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
2. Gregg EW, Cheng YJ, Saydah S, Cowie C, Garfield S, Geiss L, et al. Trends in death rates among U.S. adults with and without diabetes between 1997 and 2006: findings from the National Health Interview Survey. Diabetes Care. 2012;35:1252–7. pmid:22619288
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
3. Nwaneri C, Bowen-Jones D, Cooper H, Chikkaveerappa K, Afolabi BA. Falling mortality rates in Type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Wirral Peninsula: a longitudinal and retrospective cohort population-based study. Postgrad Med J. 2012;88:679–83 pmid:22904202
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
4. Carstensen B, Kristensen JK, Ottosen P, Borch-Johnsen K; Steering Group of the National Diabetes Register. The Danish National Diabetes Register: trends in incidence. prevalence and mortality. Diabetologia. 2008;51:2187–96. pmid:18815769
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
5. Eliasson M, Talbäck M, Rosén M. Improved survival in both men and women with diabetes between 1980 and 2004—a cohort study in Sweden. Cardiovasc Diabetol 2008;7:32. pmid:18937871
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
6. Andersson T, Ahlbom A, Magnusson C, Carlsson S. Prevalence and incidence of diabetes in Stockholm County 1990–2010. PLoS One. 2014;9:e104033 pmid:25121976
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
7. Boyle JP, Thompson TJ, Gregg EW, Barker LE, Williamson DF. Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence. mortality. and prediabetes prevalence. Popul Health Metr. 2010;22;8:29.
- View Article
- Google Scholar
8. Brinks R, Tamayo T, Kowall B, Rathmann W. Prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040: estimates from an epidemiological model. Eur J Epidemiol. 2012;27:791–7. pmid:22878939
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
9. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 1600 Clifton Rd. Atlanta. GA 30333. USA http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/statistics/incidence/fig2.htm. Accessed May 13, 2014.
10. National board of health and Welfare. Drug prescription registry. Available at http://www.socialstyrelsen.se/statistik/statistikdatabas/lakemedel. Accessed December 1, 2014.
11. Wettermark B, Hammar N, Fored CM, Leimanis A, Otterblad, Olausson P, et al. The new Swedish Prescribed Drug Register—opportunities for pharmacoepidemiological research and experience from the first six months. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf. 2007;16:726–35. pmid:16897791
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
12. Rawshani A, Landin-Olsson M, Svensson AM, Nyström L, Arnqvist HJ, Bolinder J, et al. The incidence of diabetes among 0–34 year olds in Sweden: new data and better methods. Diabetologia. 2014;57:1375–81 pmid:24710965
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
13. World Health Organization (WHO) Oslo. (2005) Guidelines for ATC classification and DDD assignment. WHO Collaborating Centre for Drug Statistics Methodology, Oslo.
14. Gudbjørnsdottir S. Eliasson B. Cederholm J. Zethelius B. Svenson A-M, Samuelsson P. (2013) The National Diabetes Register in Sweden. Årsrapport 2013.
- View Article
- Google Scholar
15. The future population of Sweden 2014–2110. Official population statistics from Statistics Sweden. BE 18 SM 1401. http://www.scb.se/en_/Finding-statistics/Statistics-by-subject-area/Population/Population-projections/Population-projections/.
16. Lilja M, Eliasson M, Stegmayr B, Olsson T, Söderberg S. Trends in obesity and its distribution: data from the Northern Sweden MONICA Survey, 1986–2004. Obesity (Silver Spring). 2008;16:1120–8.
- View Article
- Google Scholar
17. Lindahl B, Stenlund H, Norberg M. Increasing glucose concentrations and prevalence of diabetes mellitus in northern Sweden, 1990–2007. Glob Health Action 2010;27;3.
- View Article
- Google Scholar
18. Ringborg A, Lindgren P, Martinell M, Yin DD, Schön S, Stålhammar J. Prevalence and incidence of Type 2 diabetes and its complications 1996-2003—estimates from a Swedish population-based study. Diabet Med 2008;25:1178–86. pmid:19046196
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
19. Holman N, Forouhi NG, Goyder E, Wild SH. The Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) Diabetes Prevalence Model: estimates of total diabetes prevalence for England, 2010–2030. Diabet Med. 2011;28:575–82. pmid:21480968
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
20. Waldeyer R, Brinks R, Rathmann W, Giani G, Icks A. Projection of the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany: a demographic modelling approach to estimate the direct medical excess costs from 2010 to 2040. Diabet Med. 2013;30:999–1008. pmid:23506452
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
21. Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, Seshasai SR, Kaptoge S, Thompson A, Di Angelantonio E, Gao P, et al. Diabetes mellitus, fasting glucose, and risk of cause-specific death. N Engl J Med. 2011;364:829–41. pmid:21366474
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
22. Lind M, Svensson AM, Kosiborod M, Gudbjörnsdottir S, Pivodic A, Wedel H, et al. Glycemic control and excess mortality in type 1 diabetes. N Engl J Med. 2014;371:1972–82. pmid:25409370
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar
23. Abdullah A, Peeters A, de Courten M, Stoelwinder J. The magnitude of association between overweight and obesity and the risk of diabetes: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2010;89:309–19. pmid:20493574
- View Article
- PubMed/NCBI
- Google Scholar

[ref1] 1. Guariguata L, Whiting DR, Hambleton I, Beagley J, Linnenkamp U, Shaw JE. Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2013 and projections for 2035. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2014;103:137–49. pmid:24630390
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[2] View Article

[3] PubMed/NCBI

[4] Google Scholar

[ref2] 2. Gregg EW, Cheng YJ, Saydah S, Cowie C, Garfield S, Geiss L, et al. Trends in death rates among U.S. adults with and without diabetes between 1997 and 2006: findings from the National Health Interview Survey. Diabetes Care. 2012;35:1252–7. pmid:22619288
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[6] View Article

[7] PubMed/NCBI

[8] Google Scholar

[ref3] 3. Nwaneri C, Bowen-Jones D, Cooper H, Chikkaveerappa K, Afolabi BA. Falling mortality rates in Type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Wirral Peninsula: a longitudinal and retrospective cohort population-based study. Postgrad Med J. 2012;88:679–83 pmid:22904202
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[10] View Article

[11] PubMed/NCBI

[12] Google Scholar

[ref4] 4. Carstensen B, Kristensen JK, Ottosen P, Borch-Johnsen K; Steering Group of the National Diabetes Register. The Danish National Diabetes Register: trends in incidence. prevalence and mortality. Diabetologia. 2008;51:2187–96. pmid:18815769
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[14] View Article

[15] PubMed/NCBI

[16] Google Scholar

[ref5] 5. Eliasson M, Talbäck M, Rosén M. Improved survival in both men and women with diabetes between 1980 and 2004—a cohort study in Sweden. Cardiovasc Diabetol 2008;7:32. pmid:18937871
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[18] View Article

[19] PubMed/NCBI

[20] Google Scholar

[ref6] 6. Andersson T, Ahlbom A, Magnusson C, Carlsson S. Prevalence and incidence of diabetes in Stockholm County 1990–2010. PLoS One. 2014;9:e104033 pmid:25121976
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[22] View Article

[23] PubMed/NCBI

[24] Google Scholar

[ref7] 7. Boyle JP, Thompson TJ, Gregg EW, Barker LE, Williamson DF. Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence. mortality. and prediabetes prevalence. Popul Health Metr. 2010;22;8:29.
View Article
Google Scholar

[26] View Article

[27] Google Scholar

[ref8] 8. Brinks R, Tamayo T, Kowall B, Rathmann W. Prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040: estimates from an epidemiological model. Eur J Epidemiol. 2012;27:791–7. pmid:22878939
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[29] View Article

[30] PubMed/NCBI

[31] Google Scholar

[ref9] 9. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 1600 Clifton Rd. Atlanta. GA 30333. USA http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/statistics/incidence/fig2.htm. Accessed May 13, 2014.

[ref10] 10. National board of health and Welfare. Drug prescription registry. Available at http://www.socialstyrelsen.se/statistik/statistikdatabas/lakemedel. Accessed December 1, 2014.

[ref11] 11. Wettermark B, Hammar N, Fored CM, Leimanis A, Otterblad, Olausson P, et al. The new Swedish Prescribed Drug Register—opportunities for pharmacoepidemiological research and experience from the first six months. Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf. 2007;16:726–35. pmid:16897791
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[35] View Article

[36] PubMed/NCBI

[37] Google Scholar

[ref12] 12. Rawshani A, Landin-Olsson M, Svensson AM, Nyström L, Arnqvist HJ, Bolinder J, et al. The incidence of diabetes among 0–34 year olds in Sweden: new data and better methods. Diabetologia. 2014;57:1375–81 pmid:24710965
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[39] View Article

[40] PubMed/NCBI

[41] Google Scholar

[ref13] 13. World Health Organization (WHO) Oslo. (2005) Guidelines for ATC classification and DDD assignment. WHO Collaborating Centre for Drug Statistics Methodology, Oslo.

[ref14] 14. Gudbjørnsdottir S. Eliasson B. Cederholm J. Zethelius B. Svenson A-M, Samuelsson P. (2013) The National Diabetes Register in Sweden. Årsrapport 2013.
View Article
Google Scholar

[44] View Article

[45] Google Scholar

[ref15] 15. The future population of Sweden 2014–2110. Official population statistics from Statistics Sweden. BE 18 SM 1401. http://www.scb.se/en_/Finding-statistics/Statistics-by-subject-area/Population/Population-projections/Population-projections/.

[ref16] 16. Lilja M, Eliasson M, Stegmayr B, Olsson T, Söderberg S. Trends in obesity and its distribution: data from the Northern Sweden MONICA Survey, 1986–2004. Obesity (Silver Spring). 2008;16:1120–8.
View Article
Google Scholar

[48] View Article

[49] Google Scholar

[ref17] 17. Lindahl B, Stenlund H, Norberg M. Increasing glucose concentrations and prevalence of diabetes mellitus in northern Sweden, 1990–2007. Glob Health Action 2010;27;3.
View Article
Google Scholar

[51] View Article

[52] Google Scholar

[ref18] 18. Ringborg A, Lindgren P, Martinell M, Yin DD, Schön S, Stålhammar J. Prevalence and incidence of Type 2 diabetes and its complications 1996-2003—estimates from a Swedish population-based study. Diabet Med 2008;25:1178–86. pmid:19046196
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[54] View Article

[55] PubMed/NCBI

[56] Google Scholar

[ref19] 19. Holman N, Forouhi NG, Goyder E, Wild SH. The Association of Public Health Observatories (APHO) Diabetes Prevalence Model: estimates of total diabetes prevalence for England, 2010–2030. Diabet Med. 2011;28:575–82. pmid:21480968
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[58] View Article

[59] PubMed/NCBI

[60] Google Scholar

[ref20] 20. Waldeyer R, Brinks R, Rathmann W, Giani G, Icks A. Projection of the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany: a demographic modelling approach to estimate the direct medical excess costs from 2010 to 2040. Diabet Med. 2013;30:999–1008. pmid:23506452
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[62] View Article

[63] PubMed/NCBI

[64] Google Scholar

[ref21] 21. Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, Seshasai SR, Kaptoge S, Thompson A, Di Angelantonio E, Gao P, et al. Diabetes mellitus, fasting glucose, and risk of cause-specific death. N Engl J Med. 2011;364:829–41. pmid:21366474
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[66] View Article

[67] PubMed/NCBI

[68] Google Scholar

[ref22] 22. Lind M, Svensson AM, Kosiborod M, Gudbjörnsdottir S, Pivodic A, Wedel H, et al. Glycemic control and excess mortality in type 1 diabetes. N Engl J Med. 2014;371:1972–82. pmid:25409370
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[70] View Article

[71] PubMed/NCBI

[72] Google Scholar

[ref23] 23. Abdullah A, Peeters A, de Courten M, Stoelwinder J. The magnitude of association between overweight and obesity and the risk of diabetes: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2010;89:309–19. pmid:20493574
View Article
PubMed/NCBI
Google Scholar

[74] View Article

[75] PubMed/NCBI

[76] Google Scholar

Figures

Abstract

Background

Method

Results

Conclusion

Introduction

Material and Methods

Diabetes

Mortality

Population forecast

Ethics Statement

Statistical methods

Projections

Results

Prevalence and Incidence of diabetes 2007–2013 based on the prescription registry

Projected prevalence and number of people with diabetes 2014–2050

Relative importance of factors affecting the future number of patients

Discussion

Limitations

Conclusion

Supporting Information

S1 Fig. Prevalence of diabetes in Sweden 2007–2013 and projections for 2014–2050 by age (Scenario A).

S1 Table. Approximated incidence of diabetes (per 1000) in Sweden 2007 to 2013 by age and sex.

Author Contributions

References