土木学会論文集
Online ISSN : 1882-7187
Print ISSN : 0289-7806
ISSN-L : 0289-7806
大雨の頻度
江藤 剛治室田 明米谷 恒春木下 武雄
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1986 年 1986 巻 369 号 p. 165-174

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The authors have presented a probability density function of total rainfall depth of a single storm. It is expressed in terms of the second kind modified Bessel's function. Using the asymptotic expansion of the function, a simple probability density function of the annual maximum precipitation depth is derived. which is named “SQRT-exponentialtype distribution of maximum” The p. d. f. is long-tailed compared with the Gumbel's distribution, which suggests higher probability of the occurrence of record-breaking large precipitations or so-called outliers. For example, the historical maximum 24-hour precipitation at Osaka (283.7mm) is reasonably evaluated by means of the p. d. f. as once a 214-year precipitation, while Gumbel's distribution evaluates it as once a 955-year precipitation, which is apparently unrealistic.

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