Application of Bias Correction to Improve WRF Ensemble Wind Speed Forecast
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Decaying Average Algorithm
2.2. Probability Matching Mean (PMM)
3. Materials and Experimental Design
3.1. Materials
3.2. Experimental Design
- c = 153 cases; t = 0~72 h; m = 1,24;
- m = 1~20: for 20 members;
- m = 21: the ensemble mean;
- m = 22: the mean of members using YSU PBL;
- m = 23: the mean of members using MYNN2 PBL;
- m = 24: the mean of members using MYJ PBL.
4. Results
4.1. Verification of the Original Ensemble Forecast (oEPS)
4.2. Verification of the Three Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts
4.3. Verification of Probability Matched Mean (PMM) Products
5. Discussion and Conclusion
- (a)
- BC01: System bias from a single model error of the original ensemble mean.
- (b)
- BC03: System bias was represented by three model errors from each mean of PBL groups.
- (c)
- BC20: System bias was represented by the independent member.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Microphysics | PBL | Cumulus | |
---|---|---|---|
1 | GCE | YSU | Grell |
2 | GCE | YSU | Tiedtke |
3 | GCE | MYJ | Betts-Miller |
4 | GCE | MYJ | K-F |
5 | GCE | MYJ | Tiedtke |
6 | GCE | MYJ | Old SAS |
7 | GCE | MYJ | New SAS |
8 | GCE | MYNN2 | Grell |
9 | GCE | MYNN2 | Tiedtke |
10 | GCE | MYNN2 | New SAS |
11 | WSM5 | YSU | Tiedtke |
12 | WSM5 | MYJ | Betts-Miller |
13 | WSM5 | MYJ | K-F |
14 | WSM5 | MYJ | Tiedtke |
15 | WSM5 | MYJ | Old SAS |
16 | WSM5 | MYJ | New SAS |
17 | WSM5 | MYNN2 | Grell |
18 | WSM5 | MYNN2 | Tiedtke |
19 | WSM5 | MYNN2 | New SAS |
20 | WSM5 | MYNN2 | Old SAS |
Appendix B
Parameters in SPPT | |
---|---|
gridpt_stddev_sppt | 0.2 |
stddev_cutoff_sppt | 2.5 |
Parameters in SKEB | |
tot_backscat_psi | 0.3·10–5 |
tot_backscat_t | 1.2·10–6 |
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Exp. | Bias Correction with Decaying Average Algorithm |
---|---|
oEPS | None |
BC01 | System bias from a single model error of the original ensemble mean. |
BC03 | System bias was represented by 3 model errors from each mean of PBL groups. |
BC20 | System bias was represented by the independent member |
BC01PM | Deterministic product from BC01 |
BC03PM | Deterministic product from BC03 |
BC20PM | Deterministic product from BC20 |
oEPS | BC01 | BC03 | BC20 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME | RMSE | ME | RMSE | ME | RMSE | ME | RMSE | |
MEAN | 2.29 | 2.80 | 0.52 | 1.45 | 0.30 | 1.34 | 0.31 | 1.34 |
E01 | 1.13 | 1.87 | -0.46 | 1.27 | 0.17 | 1.21 | 0.14 | 1.19 |
E02 | 1.01 | 1.80 | -0.55 | 1.29 | 0.07 | 1.20 | 0.14 | 1.20 |
E11 | 1.13 | 1.89 | -0.46 | 1.28 | 0.18 | 1.24 | 0.16 | 1.22 |
YSU_MEAN | 1.09 | 1.75 | -0.49 | 1.18 | 0.14 | 1.08 | 0.14 | 1.08 |
E08 | 1.68 | 2.26 | -0.05 | 1.27 | 0.17 | 1.25 | 0.18 | 1.25 |
E09 | 1.54 | 2.15 | -0.16 | 1.25 | 0.06 | 1.22 | 0.18 | 1.24 |
E10 | 1.64 | 2.21 | -0.10 | 1.21 | 0.13 | 1.20 | 0.17 | 1.21 |
E17 | 1.96 | 2.57 | 0.20 | 1.43 | 0.43 | 1.51 | 0.23 | 1.39 |
E18 | 1.59 | 2.19 | -0.13 | 1.25 | 0.09 | 1.23 | 0.18 | 1.24 |
E19 | 1.72 | 2.34 | -0.01 | 1.31 | 0.21 | 1.33 | 0.20 | 1.30 |
E20 | 1.62 | 2.22 | -0.10 | 1.25 | 0.12 | 1.24 | 0.16 | 1.24 |
MYNN2_MEAN | 1.68 | 2.16 | -0.05 | 1.11 | 0.17 | 1.11 | 0.19 | 1.11 |
E03 | 3.10 | 3.89 | 1.23 | 2.46 | 0.47 | 2.01 | 0.45 | 1.99 |
E04 | 3.14 | 3.96 | 1.27 | 2.52 | 0.49 | 2.07 | 0.46 | 2.02 |
E05 | 2.93 | 3.72 | 1.08 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 1.92 | 0.43 | 1.95 |
E06 | 3.10 | 3.92 | 1.24 | 2.49 | 0.47 | 2.05 | 0.48 | 2.04 |
E07 | 3.27 | 4.07 | 1.38 | 2.59 | 0.59 | 2.11 | 0.48 | 2.04 |
E12 | 3.05 | 3.82 | 1.18 | 2.39 | 0.42 | 1.94 | 0.46 | 1.95 |
E13 | 3.15 | 3.92 | 1.28 | 2.47 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 1.96 |
E14 | 2.97 | 3.77 | 1.12 | 2.36 | 0.36 | 1.93 | 0.45 | 1.96 |
E15 | 3.08 | 3.84 | 1.21 | 2.39 | 0.43 | 1.94 | 0.44 | 1.94 |
E16 | 3.01 | 3.74 | 1.14 | 2.29 | 0.36 | 1.85 | 0.41 | 1.86 |
MYJ_MEAN | 3.08 | 3.74 | 1.21 | 2.26 | 0.44 | 1.80 | 0.45 | 1.80 |
PM | – | – | 0.003 | 1.19 | 0.021 | 1.25 | 0.034 | 1.25 |
Experiments | ME | RMSE | SPREAD |
---|---|---|---|
oEPS | 2.29 | 2.80 | 1.32 |
BC01 | 0.52 | 1.45 | 1.15 |
BC03 | 0.30 | 1.34 | 0.89 |
BC20 | 0.31 | 1.34 | 0.86 |
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Tsai, C.-C.; Hong, J.-S.; Chang, P.-L.; Chen, Y.-R.; Su, Y.-J.; Li, C.-H. Application of Bias Correction to Improve WRF Ensemble Wind Speed Forecast. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1688. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12121688
Tsai C-C, Hong J-S, Chang P-L, Chen Y-R, Su Y-J, Li C-H. Application of Bias Correction to Improve WRF Ensemble Wind Speed Forecast. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(12):1688. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12121688
Chicago/Turabian StyleTsai, Chin-Cheng, Jing-Shan Hong, Pao-Liang Chang, Yi-Ru Chen, Yi-Jui Su, and Chih-Hsin Li. 2021. "Application of Bias Correction to Improve WRF Ensemble Wind Speed Forecast" Atmosphere 12, no. 12: 1688. https://0-doi-org.brum.beds.ac.uk/10.3390/atmos12121688