Published February 2, 2015
| Version 10000621
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Urban Growth Prediction in Athens, Greece, Using Artificial Neural Networks
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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the
globe. Monitoring and modelling urban growth have become a
necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making.
Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes
and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this
research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has
been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps.
The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as
road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network
modelling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map
for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of
2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639
and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results
indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction
model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers
could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban
change.
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