The results presented herein are divided in two sections. Firstly, the model verification of the mean quantities is explored, stratifying results by height levels. Secondly, the turbulent quantities are evaluated, regarding their temporal evolution, data distributions, daily cycle representations and turbulence spectrum description.
3.1. Model Performance: Mean Quantities
Figure 2 shows the distribution of horizontal wind speed and wind direction through wind roses at three different heights, given by the tower observations (OBS), the mesoscale simulation of 1-km horizontal grid (MESO) and the LES simulation of 111-m horizontal grid (LES). Horizontal wind speed below 0.5 m s
are considered as calm winds and not plotted, as the wind direction cannot be determined reliably at these speeds. The dominant wind component from measurements is NW, which is also reproduced in the simulations, increasingly as the height above ground increases. According to previous studies from BLLAST campaign (e.g., [
61,
62]), northern and western components are mostly associated with large scale circulation, such as frontal passages and strong synoptic flows. The observed light winds from the N and NE directions corresponding to daytime mountain breezes [
63] are misrepresented in the MESO and LES simulations. Instead, the S and SE nocturnal flows are well captured by the LES simulation, although simulations tend to exaggerate the frequency of SE flows, specially LES, and to shift slightly the wind towards the east.
In
Figure 3 time series of horizontal wind speed and direction observations at
are compared with MESO and LES simulations. Model simulations are able to reproduce the wind speed evolution tendencies (
Figure 3a), slightly overestimating the values, as indicated by the Mean Bias (MB) which is positive in all levels and simulations (
Table 3). Simulations show relatively low values of RMSE, between 1.25 and 1.52 m s
on the three levels (see
Table 3), meaning that the wind speed values are relatively well estimated. The linear regression coefficient (R) ranges between 0.45 and 0.66 in different simulations and levels, and is slightly better for MESO than for LES simulations. Moreover the linear regression improves as the height above ground increases, so that z
gives the best results. Contingency tables and verification scores for different wind speed thresholds at z
confirm that MESO simulation gives slightly better results than LES (
Figure 4). This is illustrated by the fact that the probability of detection (POD) is greater than the false alarm ratio (FAR) for a wider wind speed range in MESO than in LES simulations. The wind speed threshold at which POD is over FAR is around 5.5 m s
in MESO and 4.25 m s
in LES simulations. These wind speed thresholds increase in height for z
and z
although the difference between MESO and LES is maintained (not shown). Threat scores (TS) are very similar between MESO and LES simulations, giving a comparable fraction of observed and forecasted events that were correctly predicted.
The wind direction evolution time series plot shows that MESO and LES capture the main changes in wind direction, which were shown in the general statistics by the wind roses. In particular, simulations reproduce south-eastern dominant winds during the hot period (from 25 to 27 June) defined by [
64] (
Figure 3b) or the wind shift during intensive observation periods (IOP) days (19–20 June, 24–25 June, 1–2 July, 2–3 July) from north (daytime) to south (night-time) components. Statistics for wind direction show negative mean bias meaning that, in average, modelled wind direction is shifted counterclockwise, greater for LES than for MESO simulations, similar at all levels (
Table 4). The square root of the average of squared errors shows a greater difference in LES modelled wind direction than in MESO in all levels, with magnitudes between 35 and 51 degrees. Therefore, MESO simulation, at three levels, performs slightly better the wind direction than LES. Linear regression coefficient for wind direction, calculated using directional statistics following [
65,
66], shows a very good regression between MESO and OBS (increasing from 0.86 at
to 0.96 at
). The R is slightly worse for LES.
In general, the wind statistics show similar behaviour between MESO and LES simulations (
Table 3 and
Table 4), slightly better for MESO, meaning that the mesoscale forcing, driven by the reanalysis forcing, is the responsible for the changes in wind speed and wind direction. The LES simulation does not improve the wind field, instead, it shows higher variability in wind speed and wind direction values. As the wind time series in LES are calculated using 10 min temporal averages from 0.25 s outputs, they include more fluctuations and variability than MESO time series, therefore, statistics can easily be worse for LES. In fact this could be somewhat expected due to the ’double penalty’ effect [
67,
68], caused by miss-location (in this case temporal shifts) of forecast features found when comparing higher with lower resolution forecasts with deterministic verification scores. The added value of LES is, then, the ability to resolve turbulent quantities (see next
Section 3.2).
3.2. Model Performance: Turbulent Quantities
One of the most important magnitudes in the ABL is the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), which defines the status of the flow and the energy available in the atmosphere for mixing, i.e., the turbulence intensity. The temporal evolution of the TKE at z
is shown in
Figure 5. While in MESO simulation the TKE is obtained from the parametrisation of the PBL scheme, in LES this magnitude is explicitly calculated (see
Section 2.3). For the whole period, the MESO and LES simulations reproduce the daily cycle of the TKE and reproduce the turbulence intensity changes through time. Although the correlation is very good at all levels (
Table 5), MESO simulation, as expected, is not able to capture the observed turbulence peaks, while LES approximates better the enhanced TKE periods (18, 22, 28 June and 3 of July) but generally underestimating the turbulence intensity. These days correspond to non-IOP periods, when large scale winds from W and N dominated the region.
An examination of the data distributions (probability distribution functions, or PDF) from the whole period LES simulation and observations allows a global comparison of the behaviours and discrepancies between the two data sets. For example, LES simulation generally underestimates TKE values (
Figure 6a), either during night-time or during daytime, and extreme TKE values are not well captured. This is also shown by the negative MB at all levels (
Table 5), while R coefficients are maintained around 0.45–0.49. The horizontal wind standard deviation ranges are underestimated (
Figure 6b), but most significantly, the vertical velocity standard deviation (
Figure 6c). While the model hardly reaches values of
greater than 0.2 m s
(more than 90% of values are below 0.2 m s
), more than the 70% of observations range between 0.2 to 0.6 m s
(
Figure 6c). Very low values of the kinematic heat flux (
) are captured by LES (
Figure 6d). Positive peaks are often underestimated, corresponding to central hours daytime maxima during IOP days. Linear regression coefficient is relatively low, decreasing as the height increases (
Table 5). These results are only displayed for z
, although the other two heights (z
and z
) show very similar PDF distributions for observations and simulations. Statistics for these heights are shown in
Table 5.
A closer look to the daily cycle of the turbulent quantities confirms the general underestimation of TKE and heat flux values, calculated for 10 IOP days (
Figure 7). The TKE daily cycle (
Figure 7a) is generally underestimated by LES, a feature also observed by [
12], but opposite to the results from [
6]. These authors and other recent existing literature [
22,
35,
37] use a greater number of vertical levels which can be one reason for these discrepancies. In addition, the sub-grid scheme may not be providing the fully correct energy contained in the eddies smaller than the grid, which can be another source of errors. While morning median and peaks are too low in the simulation, afternoon median gets closer to observations, which means that turbulence in the simulation probably needs more time to get fully developed. Night-time TKE values are maintained in the simulation, although slightly below the observed ones.
The daily cycle seen in heat flux observations is misrepresented by the LES simulation (
Figure 7b). During night-time the simulation maintains the heat flux close to zero, mostly positive, whereas in observations the median heat flux is negative, with values around −0.02 K m s
. During daytime the magnitude of F
is noticeably underestimated, and extreme positive values are never reached, a similar behaviour than observed by [
2]. Greater values of F
are given by LES during IOP daytime central hours in comparison to non-IOP days. Therefore, transport due to thermal origin of turbulence is reproduced by LES to some degree. Instead, no remarkable differences are noticed in the comparison of TKE for the non-IOP days.
The general inaccuracy of the model in reproducing the heat flux can be attributed to different explanations. Firstly, we have seen there is a general underestimation of the standard deviation of vertical velocity component (
Figure 6c), which can lead to an underestimation of the heat flux, and the TKE as well. In addition, a great part of the heat flux may be unresolved given the grid resolution. Thus, the sub-grid part of the heat flux becomes significant, which is not resolved by the simulation, as
Figure 7b only presents the resolved heat flux. Indeed, in our 111-m horizontal grid size simulations eddies that trigger turbulence may be smaller than the effective resolution, for instance in stably stratified ABL (e.g., [
36]). Then, the sub-grid scheme of the model can play an important role, as most part of the heat flux is unresolved and has to be parameterised and it still exists a lot of uncertainty to represent adequately the unresolved sub-grid turbulence. In addition, the grid geometry lead to high anisotropy, breaking the assumption of the LES simulation. On the other hand, the temperature perturbation method used to couple the mesoscale to LES domains can be introducing artificial unrealistic potential temperature fluctuations.
3.3. Velocity Field Spectrum
The power spectral density of the turbulent velocity field, or turbulence spectrum, gives information about the energy associated with each time scale. In this case we can explore the energy associated to limited time scales, between 25 days and 10 min.
Figure 8 shows that the energy of eddies with lifetime below 2 or 3 h are maintained in LES simulation, similarly as in observed wind speed spectrum (OBS), but decays too fast in MESO simulation. Therefore, MESO simulation is not able to resolve sufficient energy for frequencies higher than 10
(i.e., lower than 2 h), producing a strong decay of the energy. Instead, LES is reproducing the eddies lifetime with similar energy than in observations. The lack of energy identified for frequencies of a few hours in LES can be attributed to the unresolved flow field in the “Terra incognita” scales, probably not fully resolved in the intermediate LES domain.
On the left part of the turbulence spectrum, the energy in the smallest range of frequencies (larger scales) is slightly overestimated in MESO an LES simulations, in comparison with OBS time series, a limitation probably dragged from the reanalysis. In addition, large scales, from several days to few hours are reproduced similarly in both MESO and LES simulations.